Cycle News In The Paddock
COLUMN
The Question That Won’t Go Away
This year, next year, sometime … never. The “Toprak to MotoGP” story is almost as old as the dinosaurs. Unlike them, however, it won’t go extinct.
There’s always been one or another stumbling block. Not least his and his manager Kenan Sofuoglu’s insistence he would only move straight into a full factory team [see Sidebar]. Which considerably reduced his chances.
Earlier this season, I was convinced that the endless shilly-shallying combined with the advancing years meant he had left it too late. Now the shifting sands in MotoGP—and a whole new set of rumors—make that less certain.
Sidebar: The demand for a full factory ride or nothing may have blocked off opportunities for Toprak, but it is not completely unprecedented for Superbike champions. It has happened twice before, in different circumstances.
In 1995, former 500cc World Champion Kevin Schwantz retired midseason. Scott Russell was drafted in, right at the deep end, and retained for the next year, when he claimed a couple of thirds and finished sixth overall. Eight years later, double champion Colin Edwards was recruited by Aprilia to ride the three-cylinder 990 Cube in 2003. The bike was loud and fast, but flawed, and didn’t do the Texan any favors, least of all when it caught fire and he had to leap off at high speed. He moved on to a Honda, then some strong years with Yamaha.
There are several scenarios making the rounds. The least probable has current employers BMW joining MotoGP at last, after resisting Dorna’s entreaties for many years.
Yamaha, for whom he won his first Superbike title, is another candidate. After all, the new Pramac Yamaha team this year has “equal status” to the factory team.
Then there’s Honda, which, like Yamaha, is making progress on the MotoGP comeback road. One possibility would be a year on their Superbike—and a chance to win the title on three different makes—then into the factory team on the all-new 850 for 2027.
Some factors lend plausibility.
Firstly, the speed of two out of three rookies this year suggests that the dumbed-down regs that have made MotoGP bikes so similar have also made them easier to ride. Moto2 champ Ai Ogura has astonished from his first race, when he finished fourth: Five races in, he’s still top Aprilia. Fermin Aldeguer has been equally impressive—strong top 10s in the last two races, with a podium challenge at Jerez only ended by a crash.
Secondly, the Honda revival. Progress in just one year from also-ran to top-10 shooters shows that the sleeping giant is getting serious again after a long lull. Honda also has had a great record in figuring out bikes for the all-new regulations—the 990cc V5 RC211V that dominated the early four-stroke years was a masterpiece while other manufacturers were still finding their feet.
Thirdly, and most crucially, tires. Pirelli is the longest-serving motorcycle world championship control-tire supplier after 21 years in WorldSBK. And Pirelli takes over from Michelin in MotoGP in 2027.
There are two aspects to consider. Firstly, as Pirelli director Giorgio Barbier explained, with ride-height devices banned and aero limited, lap times of MotoGP and Superbike will be closer, and the tires that work for the latter shouldn’t be a million miles away for MotoGP.
Secondly, how it relates to Razgatlioglu. Toprak has career-long experience with Pirellis, and that could count for a lot while the rest of MotoGP riders will have to adapt.
So, does this make Toprak a shoo-in for MotoGP success?
There should be nothing to prevent a rider who is good on a Superbike from being good on a MotoGP bike. Racing is racing, after all. But the margins at the top are close, and small nuances make a big difference. Perhaps that is why the precedents are not particularly encouraging. Carl Fogarty was a Superbike giant, but he never got a real MotoGP opportunity. A handful of outings were inconclusive at best: fourth on a Cagiva in Britain in 1993 was a tantalizing glimpse of what might have been.
Double SBK champ Colin Edwards made 12 podiums in 12 years and was narrowly denied a single win at Assen with a last-corner tumble. He wasn’t far from the very top. But he was 29 when he switched and possibly a bit too old.
Scott Russell had just a year and a half, with a single podium. Respectable, at a time when Suzuki was on the back foot. Ben Spies did achieve a race win and five more podiums in four years with Yamaha. Even more respectable. But both one-time Superbike Champions were some ways short of the big cigar.
Moving from the Grand Prix paddock to Superbikes has brought championships for many riders, including John Kocinski, Max Biaggi, Carlos Checa and Alvaro Bautista. It’s never worked the other way around.
Could Toprak, 29 in 2027, be different? CN
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